The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) has released its annual State of the World Wine Sector report for 2025, revealing a global industry navigating a convergence of three powerful forces: the impact of US tariff policies, accelerating climate volatility, and long-term structural shifts in consumer behaviour. Global wine consumption has fallen to its lowest level since 1957, while exports have hit a 16-year low — yet the sector is showing remarkable resilience as supply and demand slowly rebalance.
Wine Consumption Falls to Its Lowest Since 1957
Global wine consumption slipped 2.7% to 208 million hectolitres in 2025 — a number that carries the weight of history. The last time consumption was this low, the industry operated in a fundamentally different world. The OIV’s report makes clear this is not a cyclical dip, but the acceleration of a structural transformation years in the making.
The OIV attributes the decline to long-term structural shifts in mature markets, changing consumer behaviour and recent economic pressure on purchasing power. Global consumption has been falling steadily since 2018, with volumes now down 14% over that entire period. Nine of the world’s top 10 wine markets recorded lower consumption volumes in 2025.
Third Consecutive Below-Average Global Vintage
Global wine production reached 227 million hectolitres in 2025 — up just 0.6% on the historically low 2024 vintage, but still 9.4% below the five-year average. Climate instability remained a major factor across both hemispheres, with early frosts, excessive rainfall and prolonged drought affecting vineyard productivity in key producing nations.
Crucially, however, the below-average production is not creating a supply crisis. The OIV confirmed that a third consecutive year of comparatively low production has helped keep production and consumption broadly balanced, limiting stock pressure despite weaker global demand.
Six Consecutive Years of Vineyard Decline
Global vineyard surface area fell for the sixth consecutive year in 2025, declining 0.8% to 7.0 million hectares. The sustained, intentional contraction of the world’s vine-growing base is a landmark structural signal — producers are actively shrinking supply to match softer long-term demand.
Chile’s vineyard area contracts by 27% — one of the most dramatic supply-side adjustments of any producing nation globally over this period.
The French government creates a €130 million aid package to fund the uprooting of vineyards, an extraordinary policy intervention in response to sustained demand softness.
Brazil expands vineyard area for the fifth consecutive year, reaching 91,000 hectares — up 9.6% year-on-year, bucking the global contraction trend.
Total global vineyard area reaches 7.0 million hectares — the sixth consecutive annual decline, down 0.8% from 2024.
US Tariffs Drive Export Volumes to 16-Year Low
The most acute near-term pressure on global wine trade in 2025 came not from climate or demographics, but from trade policy. Global wine exports fell 4.7% in volume to 94.8 million hectolitres — the lowest since 2009. In value, exports dropped 6.7% to €33.8 billion ($39.67 billion). US wine imports alone fell 11.6% in value to €5.5 billion.
Despite the trade turbulence, one remarkable statistic stands out: almost one in two bottles of wine is now consumed outside the country of origin. The global wine trade, despite tariff headwinds, remains structurally robust and historically internationalised.
“In 2025, the disruption to international trade through tariff policies was yet another external impact that producers, exporters and supply chain must manage.”— John Barker, Director General, International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV)
How the Industry Is Adapting: Tourism, Low-Alcohol and Sustainability
The wine sector’s response to these converging pressures is crystallising around three strategic pivots identified by the OIV: wine tourism, sustainability, and the formalisation of low and no-alcohol wine as a regulated commercial category.
The OIV is in active talks to establish a customs code for low-alcohol and alcohol-free wine — a category that currently represents about 1% to 2% of global production. The move signals that low-alcohol wine is graduating from a niche positioning into a tracked, traded, and institutionally recognised segment of the global market.
What This Means for Duty-Free and Travel Retail Wine
Travellers are buying less wine but spending more per bottle. Premium and super-premium expressions remain best positioned to weather volume declines in the duty-free channel.
Three consecutive below-average vintages mean scarcity in key appellations is real. Securing allocations of premium Burgundy, Barolo and Champagne is increasingly competitive for buyers.
Brazil, Portugal, New Zealand and South Africa are growing in output and profile — offering fresh duty-free alternatives beyond the traditional French-Italian-Spanish axis.
As the OIV formalises trade codes for low-alcohol and alcohol-free wine, the category is set to gain commercial visibility. Forward-thinking travel retail operators should build dedicated ranges now.
2025 Global Wine Sector — Data at a Glance
| Metric | 2025 Figure | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Wine Consumption | 208 mhl | ▼ 2.7% | Lowest since 1957 |
| Global Wine Production | 227 mhl | ▼ 9.4% vs 5yr avg | 3rd consecutive low year |
| Global Vineyard Area | 7.0 million ha | ▼ 0.8% | 6th consecutive decline |
| Global Wine Exports (Volume) | 94.8 mhl | ▼ 4.7% | Lowest since 2009 |
| Global Wine Exports (Value) | €33.8 billion | ▼ 6.7% | +24% above pre-COVID |
| US Wine Imports (Value) | €5.5 billion | ▼ 11.6% | Tariff impact |
| China Wine Consumption | — | ▼ 13% YoY | ▼ 61% since 2020 |
| Average Export Price | €3.56 / litre | ▼ 2.1% | 3rd highest on record |
| Internationally Traded Share | 46% | — | Historically high |
Source: OIV State of the World Wine Sector in 2025, published 12 May 2026. Full report available at oiv.int. Data cited via Reuters, The Drinks Business, ESM Magazine and BusinessWorld Online
